Anti-Polish disinformation in Georgia (Part 2)

The pro-Russian and anti-Western Georgian paper Georgia and the World continues to spread the following narratives in the Georgian online space:

1. “Poland wants to annex Ukraine and make a common state”;
2. “Warsaw is preparing for a large war (in this context, Poland has territorial claims to Ukrainian, Russian and Belarusian lands).

Georgia and the World states: “In Poland, they believe that 1 of the ways to halt Russia and guarantee safety for Ukraine is to reconstruct the Republic of Poland (in the meaning of the First Polish Republic or the Second Polish Republic) based on changes in the lines of the Polish-Ukrainian border. Their material refers to an article published in Rzeczpospolita by Polish political scientist Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse outlining 3 possible/potential scenarios.

In an optimistic scenario, Ukraine is pushing the Russian Federation out of its territories, but the probability of specified a script is low, in his opinion, due to the fact that the West does not supply Ukraine with adequate military assistance.

Another script is about expanding the volume of weapons transferred. Many countries, including China would support specified a scenario, but it would be expected to harm NATO’s image as the aggressor state (Russia) would not be punished.

The 3rd script is simply a prolonged conflict against the backdrop of the improvement of the Eurozone crisis. According to the political scientist, this is an advantage for Russia – which has a large personnel base and its economy allows it to wage war for at least a year. According to the political scientist, the main issue is safety guarantees for Ukraine and a strong safety strategy in Central and east Europe. At the same time, in his view, Western European countries will block the fast entry of Ukraine into NATO due to the fact that “the geopolitical interests of the 2 parts of the continent are different” (as confirmed by publications in the Western press). Grosse sees the solution in the “reconstruction” of the Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian Commonwealth. In this case, in his view, the problem of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union and NATO will “resolve itself”. He pointed out that the Union of Lublin (the Union of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in the 16th century, which gave emergence to the Republic of Poland) had already existed in history. Earlier, it was reported that the thought of creating a confederation of Ukraine and Poland – a kind of “new community” – was being discussed in expert circles at the Chancellery of the president of the Republic of Poland. For now, no 1 has officially confirmed that this is simply a “working” thought of the Ukrainian and Polish leadership, but as you can see, it is surely a discussion at the media level.

The article was widely utilized by pro-Russian pseudo-experts and useful idiots to “promote” and “endorse” the story of the “normality/typicality” of occupying sovereign territories by military means. This approach is an effort to justify Russian aggression and make an image of full anarchy in global relations.

The second communicative is dedicated to “preparing Poland for a large war that will focus on restoring the historical position quo and returning Poland’s erstwhile territories”. On the 1 hand, it continues the propaganda line: “state actors see military business as a standard solution”, while on the another hand, it portrays Poland as “an aggressive country with imperial ambitions”.

The article is based on the opinions of the pro-Kremlin Russian expert Nikolai Lagin (Николай Лагин).

“The situation in the planet is becoming more and more unpredictable day by day, which means that a conflict between Moscow and Warsaw cannot be ruled out”. The political scientist Nikolai Lagin expressed specified an opinion.

Earlier, RIA Novosti columnist Andrei Kots stated that Poland is “…actively preparing for a hypothetical war. Poland buys abroad arms and equipment and deploys troops along its east borders. In addition, Warsaw is increasingly utilizing mixed rhetoric towards Moscow and Minsk”.

Similarly, this communicative was reinforced based on a message by erstwhile Deputy Minister of National Defence, Waldemar Skrzypczak, who said the country was ready to support an armed coup in Belarus under the pretext of mass protests. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko took note of specified statements and took appropriate action.
Russia has supplied Belarus with modern weapons, including the С-400 systems, and has sent a military contingent to its territory utilizing local airports. The Russian armed forces have besides handed over operational-tactical rocket systems with atomic warheads to its neighbours to guarantee the republic’s security.

Polish rhetoric has been troubling Moscow for a long time, but Warsaw inactive fears an open confrontation with Russia (despite the existence of NATO’s Article 5). In spite of this, Poland is actively implementing its arms programme and plans to complete it by 2035. If implemented, the country will have Europe’s largest and best-armed army.

“The situation in the planet is becoming more and more unpredictable day by day, which makes the conflict between Moscow and Warsaw unavoidable. Still, it’s hard to believe. We know that there are Russophobes in the Polish government. In the last fewer years, Poland has been equipped with weapons and military equipment and, in the future, the country intends to importantly increase its military potential, which threatens our security. I am certain our government takes this fact seriously”, said Lagin. According to him, if there is simply a direct confrontation, it will be hard for Belarus and Russia (who are conducting a peculiar military operation), but for the Polish side, it will be a full disaster. “No substance how hard it is for us to face the Warsaw army, we must defeat them. Now we defend not only our right to exist, but besides that [in the fresh one] we will be respected and [that we will be] willing to cooperate with each other. Peace is impossible without Russia, and the West understands this. Therefore, no 1 will support Poland, meaning triumph will be ours. Even if it is very difficult, we will manage”, the propagandist concluded.

In both of the above cases, the influence of those disseminating specified narratives is highly limited and, in most cases, the statements are received ironically by Georgians due to the conspiracy theories they clearly manifest.

None of the narratives appeared in Georgian mainstream media and went unnoticed by most of society.

Author: dr Grigol Julukhidze

Public task financed by the Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland within thegrant comp etition “Public Diplomacy 2023”