UK retail sales unexpectedly fell in November, defying analyst forecasts and signaling that Black Friday discounts failed to deliver their usual boost. The Office for National Statistics reported a 0.1% decline, despite economists predicting a 0.4% increase.
The disappointing figures follow an even steeper 0.9% drop in October. Supermarket sales fell 0.5% in November, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, while online retailers and street markets saw sales plunge 2.9%.
Not all sectors struggled. Department stores recorded a 2.3% jump in sales volumes, which retailers attributed to longer Black Friday discounting periods. Clothing and shoe shops rose 1.7%, and household goods climbed 1.8%.
Black Friday loses its punch
Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS, explained the broader trend: «This year November's Black Friday discounts did not boost sales as much as in some recent years, meaning that once we adjust for usual seasonality, our headline figures fell a little on the month. Meanwhile, our separate household survey showed that although some people said they were planning to do more shopping this Black Friday than last, almost twice as many said they were planning to do less.»
The cautious consumer behavior comes despite recent economic relief measures. The Bank of England cut interest rates to 3.75%, and inflation declined to 3.2% from 3.6%.
Gloomy outlook ahead
Consumer confidence offered limited encouragement. GfK's index nudged up to its joint-highest level this year, though it remains deep in negative territory. Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, captured the mood: «Consumers resemble a family on a festive winter hike, crossing a boggy field - plodding along stoically, getting stuck in the mud and hoping that easier conditions are not far off.»
Financial markets are pricing in continued weakness. Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, warned: «Markets do not believe growth is coming to the UK anytime soon. Indeed, the UK is likely to slip into recession if the latest GDP figures are anything to go by, and there is little sign of positive momentum being generated.»
The retail sector faces a crucial Christmas trading period with shoppers remaining cautious. Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of the UK economy, making the sector's performance critical for broader economic health.
Note: This article was created with Artificial Intelligence (AI).
