Labour humiliated as Plaid wins Caerphilly by-election

upday.com 5 godzin temu

Plaid Cymru secured a stunning victory in the Caerphilly Welsh Parliament by-election, leaving Labour with a humiliating third-place finish behind Reform UK. Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour) conceded his party faces a "very tough fight" ahead of the Senedd elections in May.

Lindsay Whittle won 15,961 votes for Plaid Cymru, capturing more than 47% of the total with a swing of almost 27% from Labour on a turnout exceeding 50%. Labour suffered the humiliation of losing a seat they had held since the Welsh Parliament's establishment in 1999.

Reform UK candidate Llyr Powell secured 12,113 votes - a dramatic surge from just 495 four years ago - while Labour's Richard Tunnicliffe managed only 3,713 votes, down from 13,289 in 2021. Conservative candidate Gareth Potter received just 690 votes, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats securing 516 and 497 respectively.

Political reactions and implications

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth declared the result showed his party was the "real choice" for Wales. "The people of Caerphilly had chosen hope over division and progress over the tired status quo," he said, adding that Plaid offered a "positive, pro-Wales vision".

He emphasised that Plaid was "no longer just an alternative" but "the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone". The leader proclaimed: "Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way."

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the result showed Labour was in "severe trouble" in Wales and suggested Plaid Cymru was now "well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister". Thomas-Symonds acknowledged the result was "disappointing" and pointed to a "fractured political landscape" in the UK.

Reform UK celebrates breakthrough

Reform UK chairman David Bull described the second-place finish as both "disappointing" and "amazing" given his party was "only four years old". Reform candidate Powell predicted his party would form a government in Wales in 2026, declaring: "You can see Labour in decline, and there's one party that's surging here, and you can see from tonight's result that's Reform UK."

Curtice noted that while Reform UK would be disappointed at coming second, the result was "pretty consistent" with the party's general polling performance. He suggested Reform wasn't yet "strong enough to win an election" when facing a strong alternative like Plaid Cymru.

Internal Labour tensions emerge

Labour Senedd member Alun Davies criticised Westminster Labour for "using the language of Reform" when speaking about refugees, suggesting this had damaged the party's appeal. Thomas-Symonds rejected this criticism, telling BBC Radio 4's Today programme that tackling border security was a "huge priority" for voters.

He told LBC his party would need to "redouble" its efforts and show "in word and deed" that it remained the best option for Welsh voters. First Minister Eluned Morgan (Labour) acknowledged: "Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people's lives has not been quick enough."

Governance challenges ahead

The victory creates immediate challenges for the Welsh Government's budget negotiations, as Labour does not hold a majority in the Welsh Parliament. When passing its last budget in March, the Government needed opposition support to secure approval by a tight margin, and losing the Caerphilly seat makes the next budget vote even more precarious.

Recent polling had already forecast Plaid Cymru and Reform UK as the two biggest parties in Wales for next year's elections. This by-election result appears to confirm that dramatic shift in Welsh politics, with Labour's dominance since 1999 now under serious threat.

Sources used: "PA Media" Note: This article has been created with Artificial Intelligence (AI).

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