Liver cancer cases are set to double by 2050, with rising obesity rates partly driving the alarming increase, academics have warned. The stark projection highlights a growing health crisis that could see preventable deaths soar without urgent action.
The proportion of liver cancer cases linked to obesity will more than double from five per cent to 11 per cent over the coming decades. Experts are calling for immediate measures to tackle preventable cases before they occur.
Global cases to reach 1.5 million
New liver cancer diagnoses worldwide will surge from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million in 2050, according to projections published in a new Lancet Commission on Liver Cancer paper. The research reveals a dramatic shift in the underlying causes of this deadly disease.
Researchers found that liver cancers caused by hepatitis B virus - currently the most common cause - are set to reduce proportionately over the coming years. Cases caused by hepatitis C virus are also expected to decline.
Alcohol and obesity driving increase
However, liver cancer cases caused by alcohol and obesity are set to increase significantly. Experts predict that by 2050, some 21 per cent of liver cancers will be caused by alcohol consumption.
Meanwhile, 11 per cent will be caused by a severe form of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) - formerly known as fatty liver disease. This condition occurs when fat builds up in a person's liver, with the severe form called metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis.
Preventable deaths could soar
The research team emphasised that 60 per cent of liver cancers are preventable. Global deaths from liver cancer are expected to rise from 760,000 in 2022 to 1.37 million in 2050.
"These data suggest that preventive measures targeting a comprehensive number of risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma are sorely needed," the team of experts led by academics in Hong Kong wrote. The main treatment for MASLD involves eating a balanced diet, being physically active and potentially losing weight.
Survival rates remain poor
Professor Jian Zhou, chairman of the Commission from Fudan University in China, said: "Liver cancer is a growing health issue around the world. It is one of the most challenging cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates ranging from approximately five per cent to 30 per cent."
He warned: "We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend." First author Professor Stephen Chan, from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, added that three in five cases are linked to preventable risk factors.
UK faces particular challenge
Pamela Healy, chief executive of the British Liver Trust, highlighted the severity of the situation in Britain. "Liver cancer is the fastest rising cause of cancer death in the UK, and just 13 per cent of people diagnosed will survive for five years or more," she said.
She emphasised that the biggest risk factors include pre-existing liver cirrhosis or viral hepatitis. The new analysis highlights that MASLD is expected to be linked to an increasing number of cases in the future.
Prevention key to saving lives
Healy stressed the importance of tackling underlying causes and prioritising public health measures. "By supporting people to maintain a healthy weight, cut down on alcohol and get tested and treated for hepatitis, we can prevent many cases of liver cancer and save lives," she said.
The challenge is particularly acute given that in 2022, some 64 per cent of adults in England were estimated to be overweight or living with obesity. This statistic underscores the urgent need for comprehensive public health interventions to address the growing crisis.
(PA/London) Note: This article has been edited with the help of Artificial Intelligence.
