Poland seen as “threat to the peace”. The Russian mechanics of influence explained

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The Russian disinformation device continues to represent Poland as a “threat to peace in the region” and a country “preparing for an armed attack on its neighbours”. In the erstwhile study [material dated August 2 ], we mentioned that the Russian and Belarusian sides were focused on insinuating that Poland would attack Belarus. Currently, both Minsk and Moscow have returned to parallel “scaring” their mark audience with the spectre of an impending Polish attack on Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The common denominator of narratives referring to the “neo-imperial aspirations of the Republic of Poland” is the portrayal of our country as a “provocateur”/“aggressor” who seeks to provoke a war with the Russian Federation.

The Russian side attempts to lend credibility to their disinformation by endorsing it with abroad “authorities”. Russians accomplish this by referring to publications featured on pro-Russian or Russian portals abroad (including those operating in Poland) or to statements shared online by individuals who collaborate or sympathise with Moscow. As an immediate example referring to the discussed context, we can mention the remarks of American pseudo-experts like Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor. These people are consistently active in infecting the English-language infosphere (mainly American) with a message that fulfils the goals of the Kremlin. too affecting English-speaking recipients, these individuals play a function in validating Russian claims disseminated for the Russian infosphere.

A fascinating trend is how certain men frequently comment on the same issue, constructing a cohesive distorted portrayal of reality consistent with the emerging trends in the Russian infosphere: essentially, they talk in a way that reinforces the narratives appearing in the Russian infosphere.

In the discussed scenario, Scott Ritter has lent credibility to the communicative of Poland’s purported preparations for launching an attack on Belarus or Russia. He stressed in his speech that the war, which he claims was “initiated by Poland”, will lead to the disintegration of the Polish Armed Forces and the demolition of our state. In this manner, he not only reinforced the communicative regarding Poland’s expected “aggressive plans” towards its neighbours, but besides generated a origin that was subsequently echoed by pro-Russian Polish disinformers (promoting the thought of an “impending catastrophe” and the “ruin of Polish statehood” – inciting panic and anti-Ukrainian and anti-American sentiments).

The message of the second of the mentioned pseudo-experts (Douglas MacGregor) boiled down to portraying Poland as a country that will become a key associate of the “American coalition”, whose forces will enter western Ukraine. The given message actually served to refresh the disinformation communicative about the alleged plans for the annexation of western Ukraine by the Polish Army under the pretext of a “peacekeeping mission”. The mentioned communicative pertains straight to the portrayal of Poland as an aggressive state that will effectively trigger a war between NATO and the Russian Federation through its “neo-imperial ambitions”.

The aforementioned actions of pro-Russian “figures of authority”, despite their varying narratives, all amount to depicting Poland as a state “posing a threat to regional security” and “global peace”. In this version of reality, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia may shortly fall prey to “Polish aggression”. Therefore, we are witnessing whitewashing actions of Russia’s image – portraying a state liable for initiating the war as a country that is “a victim of the machinations of its Western neighbours”. At the same time, we are witnessing actions that attribute work to Poland and the USA (the administration of Joe Biden) for unleashing the spectre of planet War III onto the world. In addition to undermining the image of both countries and distorting the reality, which effectively shifts the blame for the war outbreak in Ukraine distant from Russia (the information reaches recipients worldwide), we are faced with attempts to sway the electoral preferences of Polish and American citizens. It is worth noting here that the mentioned “authorities” effort to limit the level of support for Joe Biden’s environment (by portraying the US president as a individual “provoking war with Russia” – by supporting Ukraine) and the citizens of the Republic of Poland, referring to the “authorities”, aim to lower the level of support for political parties advocating for a tough policy towards Russia.

The actions of the Russian disinformation apparatus aimed at portraying Poland as a “threat to peace” service the realisation of a full scope of objectives, which is achieved through influencing the Russian infosphere and the information spheres of many countries. 1 of the aspects of data activity is its influence on the electoral preferences of Poles. In this context, it is worth observing which environments and supporters actively lobby for the theses of these pro-Russian pseudo-experts.

Author: dr Michał Marek

Public task financed by the Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland within thegrant comp etition “Public Diplomacy 2023”