There is simply a geopolitical advantage on the table now clear in the region. Trump must catch it before Beijing moves in.
As China sets its sights on critical infrastructure projects in Europe, as well as Ukraine’s reconstruction, the United States faces a pivotal choice: to revamp its commitment to Central and east Europe through the 3 Seas Initiative (3SI) dedicated to infrastructure development, or hazard ceding strategical ground to Beijing in a region of crucial interest.
The United States cannot afford to let Beijing proceed expanding its geoeconomic footprint in Europe. China is already eyeing up Ukraine’s reconstruction as a critical site for infrastructure diplomacy. Allowing Beijing’s increasing influence in the region would mean creating complex interdependencies with an authoritarian power in vital areas specified as energy, ports, and telecommunications right in the heart of Europe. This will affect both European prosperity and safety and the image of the United States in the world, drastically diminishing its chances of winning the large power competition with China.
If Trump is indeed willing to re-enact the “peace through strength” doctrine in order to appear victorious in the rivalry with China, he will request the support of governments in the CEE region. These administrations have shown that they are ready to strategically and decisively align with the US in the competition with Beijing.
Whether we are referring to Romania’s decision to extend the ban on Huawei’s participation in the upcoming 6G equipment tenders, or the enhanced political dialogues with Taiwan promoted by the Czech Republic and Lithuania, the CEE region has proved to be consistently entrepreneurial in putting an end to the policy of naivety towards Beijing. Unfortunately, this second approach has characterized the attitude of Brussels officials for far besides many years.
Apart from decisive alignment, the region is showing strategical maturity, championing increased defence spending. The Lithuanian president has vowed that his country will boost defence spending to 5 or six per cent of GDP starting from 2026. At the same time, Poland already leads defence investment in Europe, after spending 4.12 per cent of its GDP in this sphere in 2024.
Because a strong CEE region is besides in Trump’s interest, the fresh administration must invest in reinvigorating the 3 Seas Initiative. Strengthening the North-South corridor on NATO’s east Flank will bring more prosperity to the region and bear geopolitical value, contributing to the resilience of supply chains.
The 3SI has various pillars of cooperation for bolstering regional connectivity (digitalization, transportation, and energy), with each having a set of precedence projects. Due to the reluctance of governments in the region to cooperate on strategical projects and the red tape associated with EU-funded projects and low investment, 10 years after the launch of the Initiative, only 14 out of 143 infrastructure precedence projects have been completed. This information can be seen in the fresh Progress Report.
In Trump’s first term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised up to 1 billion US dollars in backing to make this infrastructure in the region. However, this turned out to be an empty promise. Now, with the regional safety situation worse than always and the reconstruction of Ukraine knocking at the door, the fresh Trump administration has an chance to revamp the 3SI. Indeed, Washington could transform it into a powerhouse free from Beijing’s influence.
The function of the United States in this endeavour must be not only as an investor, but besides as a mentor to push the states in the region to become even more strategically liable and determined to build their own resilience in the face of Beijing and Moscow. As an example, the 3SI can aid advance as a policy precedence the full decoupling of the region from Russian gas. This could consequence in its gradual replacement with a strengthened energy partnership with the United States.
In a akin fashion, the 3SI can act as a consensus-building format for encouraging CEE governments to decisively ban Chinese equipment from their digitization projects. Furthermore, as I suggested in this policy paper, the CEE governments can make the Initiative by adding an additional pillar to this cooperation format that concerns military modernization and innovation. This will be a way to signal the determination of states in the region to increase their military strength. It would besides be an chance to internalize Ukraine’s valuable war lessons and find investors willing to scale up the technologies that have emerged from it.
The 3 Seas Initiative has the ability to become a regional forum in which Ukraine’s reconstruction can be coordinated among like-minded allies. China is expected to have significant interest in Ukraine’s reconstruction, which would give it much economical leverage in a key region. The Trump administration has late signalled interest in making military aid to the Ukrainians conditional on not granting China the right to exploit Ukraine’s rare minerals.
Ukraine, as an associate associate of the 3 Seas Initiative since 2023, has already submitted a number of precedence infrastructure projects through the 3SI platform. These are projects that can aid the US and its allies plan out how to couple reconstruction with broader regional architecture. These priority infrastructure projects include the improvement of the “Baltic Sea – Black Sea – Aegean Sea” corridor with the construction of a fresh gauge track on the territory of Ukraine. Others include the improvement of a network of logistic terminals, as well as the construction of fresh oil pipelines. any of these projects could be financed through the 3SI Investment Fund, where American participation could be enhanced over time. After all, if the United States is determined to take advantage of Ukraine’s uncommon minerals, assuring that the business environment is safe and predictable is simply a sine qua non condition, and it all starts with reliable infrastructure.
Attending 1 of the first summits of the 3 Seas Initiative at the invitation of his good friend and Polish president Andrzej Duda, Trump was the patron leader of this Euro-Atlantic infrastructure format. 10 years after its founding and in a delicate geopolitical context, the 3SI seems more obsolete than ever.
The fresh Trump administration has the chance to revamp it as a vehicle for supporting nations in its strategical competition with China. It could besides be made into a powerhouse of strategically sound countries, which resonate with his “peace through strength” agenda. The issue overall relies on the United States’ determination to invest in 1 of the region’s top needs: infrastructure. If the US hesitates, this will be an open invitation to Beijing to grow its flagship Belt and Road Initiative further into the powder keg of Europe.
Antonia-Laura Pup is simply a policy fellow with Young Voices Europe. She is simply a Fulbright Student in safety Studies at Georgetown University, where she is researching China’s influence in the Black Sea region. Originally from Romania, she formerly advised the president of the Defence Committee in the Romanian Parliament. She besides formerly worked at the OECD and European Parliament.
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