Thirty years of Lukashenka

Last month, Belarusian president Alyaksandr Lukashenka reached a major milestone as he celebrated his thirty-year anniversary ruling the country. Throughout his tenure, he has slow distanced his country from the global community. The Belarusian leader has opted to strengthen relations with the Russian Federation while besides condemning the actions of the European Union, the United States and NATO. He has utilized his power to crack down on political opponents and he has sought to consolidate his rule over Belarus.

Lukashenka was first elected as president of Belarus in 1994. During his early years, Lukashenka began a forced transformation of Belarusian society. He introduced a referendum on granting Russian the position of a state language; he pursued economical integration with Russia; and created a regulation that the president has the right to dissolve parliament. While any members of the Belarusian government rejected the proposal, the Belarusian leader proceeded to hold the referendum. The results saw Belarus strengthen its ties with Russia, and it gave the Belarusian leader additional powers.

Then, during the early 2000s, the Belarusian leader collaborated with Russian officials to aid him hold his power. During the 2001 presidential election, the Organization for safety and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) stated that the election process in Belarus “failed to meet global standards”. Shortly afterwords, the Belarusian leader introduced a referendum that eliminated presidential word limits, giving way to his extended rule. Then, during the 2006 presidential election, the OSCE stated that one more time the Belarusian elections “failed to meet OSCE commitments for democratic elections”.

By the mid-2000s, the Belarusian leader sought another ways to consolidate his power. During the election cycle in 2010, respective presidential candidates were beaten by police or arrested. The OSCE categorized the elections as “flawed”. In addition, respective European leaders opted to boycott his inauguration ceremony. While Lukashenka had won his 4th term, it was apparent that he was consolidating power and that he was not curious in relinquishing his position. Finally, during the 2015 presidential election, the Belarusian leader was elected for a 5th term. Additional opposition members were imprisoned, and the Belarusian leader took measures to make it more hard for opposition candidates to gain traction across the country.

Now, Lukashenka’s authoritarian regulation has become most apparent during the 2020 presidential election and the 2024 parliamentary election. In 2020, president Lukashenka was challenged by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. While Lukashenka wanted to keep strong relations with Russia, Tsikhanouskaya called for Belarus to establish greater independence.

Threatened by the opposition, Lukashenka ordered his police to monitor the streets throughout major cities in the country. The police attacked and harmed Belarusian opposition members and Belarusian citizens who opposed the Lukashenka regime. Hundreds of protestors were wrongfully arrested and imprisoned, where they faced greater brutality. In addition, Lukashenka’s government rigged the election. The government claimed that the president had overwhelmingly defeated his political opponent, but the global community saw the election as nothing but a farce.

Several opposition leaders then left the country, fearing for their safety. While in exile, the opposition movement has been very active. They have published reports through crucial organizations, as well as articles in major news outlets highlighting the brutality of the Lukashenka regime. They have called for Belarus to strengthen ties with western organizations and institutions, and they have sought a better socio-economic future for their citizens.

Members of the opposition have besides worked with various governments across the planet to effort and punish Lukashenka for his antics. For example, following the fraudulent 2020 election, the European Union imposed sanctions on respective members of the Belarusian government. The United States besides announced penalties on the Lukashenka regime. These punishments were not only put in place due to the authoritarian nature of the Belarusian government, but besides due to its many human rights abuses.

Furthermore, the global community has punished Belarus for its engagement in supporting and aiding Russia during the invasion of Ukraine. respective Belarusian banks were cut off from SWIFT, the financial messaging network. many Belarusian entities have been sanctioned and visa restrictions have besides been implemented.

The Belarusian government, however, was undeterred by these events. Instead, the Belarusian president has continued to crack down on institutions in his country. During the 2024 parliamentary election, Lukashenka shut down respective opposition political parties. He besides ordered the consolidation of respective pro-government political parties, making the political scenery little diverse.

Like the 2020 presidential election, the 2024 parliamentary election was besides seen as a farce. Many candidates with favourable relations and ties to the Lukashenka government won in the elections, and the Belarusian parliament has continued to become more sympathetic to the president.

Finally, Lukashenka called for the arrest of respective opposition members and leaders. Most notably, the Belarusian leader has increased his crackdown on political opponents following the 2020 presidential election.

According to fresh reports, there are 1,420 political prisoners in Belarus. Many of these individuals are members of opposition groups and the independent media. Belarusian activists have stated that conditions for these political prisoners are barbaric. The treatment of political prisoners in Belarusian institutions has been compared to torture. respective of these individuals have been denied medical care; they are barred from gathering with their friends and household as well as their lawyers; and their wellness conditions have deteriorated. Of the 1,420 individuals wrongly imprisoned, it has been reported that 200 of them are “seriously sick and require medical care”. Their conditions, however, are being ignored.

Those who have escaped wrongful imprisonment have been faced with another issues. respective of these individuals received lengthy sentences in absentia, where the government accused them of attempting to overthrow Lukashenka. Others have been labelled as being part of extremist groups.

Realizing the opposition remains strong, Lukashenka is hoping that any imprisoned members will turn. He has late called on imprisoned political opponents to aid the government with its efforts in identifying opposition members. This would further undermine democracy within Belarus, and it would strengthen Lukashenka’s authoritarian rule. His efforts thus far, however, have been unsuccessful.

Despite these events, the Belarusian opposition has remained undeterred by Lukashenka’s threats and brutality. The opposition has coordinated with western countries to impose stiff penalties on the Lukashenka government in order to punish it for its abuse of power and its brutality against Belarusian citizens. For example, the European Union has restricted trade with Belarus. There are besides limitations on goods, services and transport. This has made it more hard for Belarus to interact with EU countries.

Meanwhile, the United States has coordinated with another countries around the planet to mark the “financial networks and assets”of Belarusian elites. The US besides imposed “export controls and airspace restrictions”. Finally, Washington has imposed visa restrictions on the Belarusian government. These punishments have further distanced Lukashenka from the western world.

In short, there have been many changes in the political scenery in Belarus throughout Lukashenka’s tenure. Despite his authoritarian efforts, the Belarusian opposition is determined to make a stand against the Belarusian dictator. Lukashenka may have reached his thirtieth year in charge, but he will know that the political scenery around him is changing. His popularity among Belarusians is declining, and his brutality has been exposed by opposition leaders.

It remains to be seen how events between the opposition and Lukashenka will unfold. It is besides unclear how the opposition movement will fare against him in the 2025 presidential election. For now, the global community will proceed to observe these developments.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky

“We suport the Belarusian Awakening’24” is simply a task co-financed by Solidarity Fund PL within the framework of Polish improvement cooperation of the Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland in the amount of PLN 230,000.

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