Trump’s Interest In Ukraine’s Rare Earth Minerals Might Backfire On Zelensky

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Trump’s confirmed interest in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals is being interpreted by some as beneficial for Zelensky amidst uncertainty about his commitment to Ukraine. One of the points from Zelensky’s so-called “Victory Plan” calls for letting his country’s allies extract its critical minerals. New Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently warned about the strategic advantage that China derives from its control over the rare earth mineral supply chain so he might have influenced Trump’s views on this issue.

US Senator Lindsey Graham raised awareness of Ukraine’s critical mineral riches during his trip there last June after he claimed that they’re sitting on $10-12 trillion worth of such wealth. Trump 2.0’s foreign policy focus on more muscularly containing China in all ways predictably predisposed him to appreciate the abovementioned point from Zelensky’s “Victory Plan”. The problem though is that the bulk of Ukraine’s critical mineral wealth is under Russian control and Ukrainian forces continue retreating.

At the same time, Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg’s words about how Ukraine needs to hold its long-delayed elections were seen as Trump’s interest in brokering a ceasefire, after which martial law can be lifted, the elections can be held, and the new government can then begin peace talks. This expectation contrasts with what Trump said a few days later about his interest in Ukraine’s (largely Russian-controlled) rare earth mineral deposits and the attendant possibility for proxy escalation.

Instead of abandoning his efforts to freeze the Ukrainian Conflict by doubling down on military aid in the hopes that Zelensky’s forces will then recapture these deposits from Russia, which could perpetuate the proxy war and thus derail his foreign policy agenda, Trump might instead try to cut a deal with Putin. One of the conditions that Trump could make for coercing Ukraine into withdrawing from at least some of the territory that Russia claims as its own might be for Putin to sell the US some of these minerals.

Putin might agree to this depending on how far Trump is able to coerce Ukraine into withdrawing, plus there’s a pragmatic argument in favor of this arrangement in that it could form a trust-building measure for the US one day allowing the EU to partially resume some Russia gas pipeline imports. The purpose would be to restore a degree of Russia and the EU’s pre-conflict complex economic interdependence, albeit this time under US supervision, as a reward for Russia complying with a ceasefire.

Russia requires capital and technology to fully exploit the rare earth deposits that are now under its control, both of which could be provided by the US, with the first possibly involving the return of some seized Russian assets so long as they’re invested into this endeavor. If successfully implemented, then this proposal could lead to more creative diplomacy of the sort suggested at the end of this analysis here for depriving China of Russia’s enormous resource wealth, which aligns with Trump’s foreign policy goals.

Ukraine wouldn’t be left completely in the lurch, however, since other smaller rare earth mineral deposits still remain under its control. These could be given to the US in exchange for continued military aid, even if the latter is curtailed when compared to its height under the Biden Administration in the run-up to summer 2023’s ultimately doomed counteroffensive. If Trump already reaches an agreement with Putin on the Russian-controlled deposits, then Zelensky would have little choice but to agree to this deal.

Far from the full military support that he expected to receive in pursuit of recapturing those lost deposits, he’d only end up with whatever the cost-conscious Trump Administration determines is the absolute minimum that the US considers that Ukraine requires for keeping the peace. This is the best outcome for those on all sides who truly want peace, but it requires substantial will on both the US and Russia’s parts along with the US coercing Ukraine into agreeing, none of which can be guaranteed.