Zawirowania w Polsce: nowe możliwości dla rosyjskiej dezinformacji

The pre-election and post-election processes in Poland, which are proceeding strenuously and dramatically but without sharp escalations, are definitely utilized by Russia to unfold a fresh wave of anti-Polish and anti-Ukrainian propaganda. The long process of changing the dominant political forces and going the Law and Justice organization into opposition created conditions erstwhile the Polish state and society had become susceptible to intensive attacks of Russian propagandists in the media space and social networks. And the blockade of the Ukrainian border by Polish carriers created a favorable background for the promotion of the favourite story of Russian propaganda about “hostility between Ukraine and Poland”.

The basic theses promoted by the anti-Polish propaganda device remained mostly unchanged:

– Poland will no longer support Ukrainian refugees; Ukrainian refugees origin anger in Poles; Poles request Ukrainians be kicked out.

– Poland is preparing an invasion of Ukraine; Polish troops will occupy Western Ukraine as shortly as they have an opportunity.

– Poland is provoking conflict between NATO and Russia in an effort to solve its own geopolitical interests.

– The West is tired of Ukraine, and anti-Ukrainian sentiment is increasing in Poland as well.

– Conflict is escalating between the Ukrainian and Polish leadership, and Duda and Zelenskyi have cut off communication.

– There is simply a deep conflict in relations and increasing competition between Poland and Germany for leadership in the region.

– Poland is in the deepest home political crisis after the elections, it will aggravate relations with Ukraine, Germany, EU leadership.

The blockade of the border between Poland and Ukraine by Polish carriers provided Russia with an perfect chance to advance the above and another anti-Polish and anti-Ukrainian narratives in the media space. The only problem for Russian propagandists was the deficiency of real conflicts between Ukrainian drivers and Polish blockaders. In addition, the calm and constructive position of the Ukrainian and Polish governments did not contribute to the escalation of the informational anti-Ukrainian and anti-Polish campaign. Although, Russian propaganda media kept this subject at the top of information trends and narratives as much as possible. In particular, the following accentuation was regularly published:

– “Ukraine’s losses from the Polish blockade could exceed a billion euros. RIA Novosti besides quotes Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia. According to him, Kyiv has paid for its own greed, and “the EU has actually equalized Ukrainian truckers with European ones.” Ukrainians immediately tried to knock prices down and capture the market. And if the problem needs to be solved at the level of the European Commission, it will take a long time during which Ukraine will incur losses.”

– “Ukrainian drivers called protesters in Poland pirates. Mykhailo Vynar, the Ukrainian driver, complained in a conversation with a publisher: “These people are terrorists, they are like pirates in Libya, and the worst thing is that there are fewer of them but they enjoy the support of Warsaw.” He said that, due to the action, he stood in front of the checkpoint for 7 days without being able to wash himself and usage the toilet.”

– “The situation on the Polish border indicates the problems of Ukraine’s integration into the EU. Polish truck drivers have been blocking checkpoints on the border with Ukraine since early November and preventing the Ukrainian trucks from passing through. This is simply a signal of advanced tension over Ukraine’s integration into the European Union. The origin of the publication expressed regret that Ukrainian business had to choose Warsaw as a support. Those who moved their businesses to Poland hoped to “cover their backs”, and now they are investing in the Polish economy in the form of taxes and logistics fees.”

– “Poles called Sadovyi, Lviv mayor, a brazen Banderaist after words about the blockade of the checkpoint. Readers of the Polish publication noted how “strange the manner in which these Ukrainians express gratitude for weapons and a roof over their heads is”. 1 user wrote: “He is brazen, it’s not for nothing that Banderaism and glorification of UPA crimes are so popular in Western Ukraine – shameful!” any people called on Sadovyi to go to the front alternatively of “misleading his compatriots”, any of them urged the Polish abroad Ministry to “brand the Banderaist”. Another reader reminded that Poland “has always gotten the mediate finger” for all step towards Ukraine, so Warsaw’s interests must come first, otherwise the disrespect for Poles will worsen. “Who knows Ukrainians understands what I’m talking about,” the reader concluded.”

– “Tumanowicz, the Polish associate of Parliament, criticized slogans of Ukrainians insulting Poles. Witold Tumanowicz, the Polish MP, criticized the Nazi slogans of Ukrainians while commenting on a video filmed at the border. A dispute between Ukrainian truck drivers and Polish police was caught on camera. Drivers shouted slogans offensive to Poles and were calling for their deaths. The video was filmed on November 23 at the border checkpoint Korchova. “The Bandera instinct is awakening in Ukrainians,” Tumanovich wrote on his page on social network X.”

Russian propaganda besides practiced another anti-Polish and anti-Ukrainian themes:

– “The Ukrainian government is developing a military provocation against Poland if the Western support diminishes. According to Ukraine’s own sources, this is about a provocation involving a strike by Western or their own converted missiles, the parts of which they want to put Russian markings on so they can blame Moscow then. Kyiv may decide to do so erstwhile it feels that the West has reduced its support so much that the front is about to collapse. And it could happen in the short term.”

– “The Ukrainian army presently has no chance to recover the territories lost during the conflict with Russia. It was stated by Waldemar Skrzypczak, General, the erstwhile Commander of the Polish Land Forces. The Russian Armed Forces have an advantage, they have regained their capabilities and can launch massive air, artillery and drone strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. As a result, the Russian army is seizing a strategical advantage over the AFU which has had a number of setbacks on the battlefield this year. Ukraine will have no way out. It must look for a solution that will let it to survive,” the Polish general said.

– “According to Maria Zakharova, the USA and UK are behind Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states and straight control them. This is how Maria Zakharova commented on Warsaw’s decision to refuse a gathering of OSCE abroad ministers with the participation of Sergei Lavrov, the Russian abroad Minister.”

Thus, Russia continues to actively conduct disinformation operations aimed at discrediting Ukraine and Poland, their allied relations and developing fresh conflicts in Ukrainian-Polish relations. Scaling up any crisis situations between Poles and Ukrainians in the global media space is 1 of the conventional tools for realizing their geopolitical and military goals. At the same time, in the conditions of stagnation of the situation on the battlefield erstwhile Russian troops cannot fulfill the Kremlin’s tasks of breaking through the front in Donbass, it is the hybrid information and intellectual operations that are of dominant importance. specified operations have 2 concurrent goals: on the 1 hand, it is direct destructive influence on Polish, Ukrainian and global audiences, and on the another hand, it is shaking up the interior situation in Ukraine and weakening the readiness of Ukrainians to counter Russian aggression.

As predicted, the transformation of the Polish government has given a fresh impetus to Russia’s production of fake information frameworks both to influence Ukrainian-Polish relations, to reduce support for Ukraine in the West, and to negatively influence the process of forming the fresh political configurations in Poland.

In the close future, a number of factors will be critical for the improvement of the situation: changes in the political situation in Poland, which may lead to the removal of most of the crisis points in Ukrainian-Polish relations (including the resolution of the border blockade); further Russia’s stagnation on the front line against the background of approached “Putin’s election” in March next year; the request to show “victories” during Putin’s “communication with people” and his speeches dedicated to the fresh Year holidays. Under these conditions, it is highly probable to foretell further intensification of Russia’s information and intellectual operations against Poland and Ukraine in December 2023 and in the period of January to March 2024.

Author: Mykhailo Samus, manager at the fresh Geopolitics investigation Network

Public task financed by the Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland within thegrant comp etition “Public Diplomacy 2023”