The prison population in England and Wales will reach 100,000 a year later than previously anticipated, new Ministry of Justice figures project. The milestone is now expected in March 2030, with the central estimate at 100,600 inmates.
The updated projections mark a significant shift from last year's forecast, which predicted the 100,000 threshold would be crossed by March 2029. The new figures estimate the prison population will be approximately 2,400 lower by September 2028 compared to previous central estimates.
The Ministry of Justice attributed the revised timeline primarily to recent sentencing policy measures. Nearly 40,000 prisoners have been released under an emergency early release scheme by the end of June this year to tackle severe overcrowding in facilities.
Current situation
The current prison population stands at 87,603 as of December 1 this year. This remains below the record high of 88,521 reached on September 6, 2024.
Despite the temporary relief from early releases, the overall trend continues upward. The Ministry of Justice points to continued rises in police charges and prosecutions, more cases reaching court, and increased numbers of offenders recalled to custody as driving factors.
Future measures
The government plans to build 14,000 new prison places by 2031. Additionally, the Sentencing Bill currently debated in Parliament aims to address the long-term capacity crisis through reforms expected to come into force next year.
The bill includes a Texas-inspired earned release scheme for inmates demonstrating good behavior, while those who break rules will serve longer sentences. Neither the impact of this bill nor the Justice Secretary's recent announcement on Tuesday concerning courts system reforms were factored into the latest projections, as the estimates only account for policies currently in force.
Note: This article was created with Artificial Intelligence (AI).
