In December last year, Ukraine received a historical decision to open negotiations on the country’s accession to the EU, and now the negotiating framework and the first intergovernmental conference are being prepared. erstwhile the conference is conducted, it will mark the authoritative start of the negotiations.
It should be borne in head that the authoritative start of negotiations means the beginning of a alternatively complicated method process of approximation of government to EU law. This process is structured, and the enlargement methodology itself provides for a number of stages of negotiations on various structural components.
However, the complexity of the process itself besides stems from the conditions in which Ukraine is making its way to the EU. These conditions are changing dynamically both due to the situation at the frontline and political aspects at home and abroad. That is why, on its way to full EU membership, Ukraine needs to constantly measure risks and look for ways to address them. And for the European Union itself, it will besides be a fresh experience to accompany a candidate state that is in a full-scale war.
In this article, we will look at some key aspects that must be taken into account in the process of Ukraine’s integration into the EU.
The origins of integration problems and challenges
The European Union has a transformative power, especially in the context of political and legal reforms, and the updated EU enlargement methodology has a clear emphasis on democracy, the regulation of law, and human rights. The fulfillment of commitments in the cluster of fundamental reforms, which is the first to be opened in the negotiations and the last to be closed, affects the overall pace of the negotiation process on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. However, approximation in this area may be the most hard for us for 2 reasons:
- The experience of any associate states in terms of the regulation of law after accession is delicate for the European Union. The deterioration of the post-accession situation pushes the EU to be tougher in assessing the implementation of commitments, which could lead to a slowdown in the negotiation process.
- Approximation requires crucial changes in governance, and thus crucial resources to fulfill the commitments.
What is expected of society and the government?
As the experience of the Western Balkan countries demonstrates, a country’s integration into the EU should be accompanied by clear and understandable communication with citizens. This is primarily essential to make realistic expectations of society regarding the process, reforms, possible disadvantages, and benefits of taking certain measures. At the same time, the slow pace of reforms or ineffectiveness of the measures taken could possibly lead citizens to uncertainty the benefits of the country’s membership in the EU, and thus lead to the emergence of Eurosceptics.
Currently, polls among Ukrainians show not only an highly advanced level of support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU but besides a steady increase. Maintaining this support is an crucial origin in the negotiation process, especially in the face of war and changing public sentiment during the hold of Western aid.
Since the negotiations begin with organization reforms, it is essential to guarantee that 2 crucial components of the improvement process are in place: public request and political capacity. Society needs to be more aware of the improvement process and request that the authorities implement these reforms in full, even in the case of unpopular decisions, specified as allocating more resources to the state apparatus. At the same time, the Government needs to have the political capacity to implement reforms and guarantee transparent communication in decision-making. In this context, a transparent and efficient policy-making process that ensures stakeholder engagement is needed.
The updated enlargement methodology contains a reversibility principle, which provides for the candidate country to decision backward in the negotiation process. It was introduced to guarantee a merit-based process that can be applied if a country becomes little democratic.
Given this, the attention of both the government and society should be constantly focused on the reforms included in the cluster of fundamental reforms (public administration reform, judicial reform, anti-corruption reform, and law enforcement reform). Moreover, it is essential to work on improving the actual negotiation process on the cluster of fundamental reforms.
Financial aspect of accession
A separate issue in the process of Ukraine’s integration into the EU is the financial costs associated with the approximation of Ukrainian government to EU acquis (EU law). The European Union has a large body of government that regulates most social relations. EU regulation concerns both more global things (environment, energy, dense industry) and more applied to citizens (production of goods, detergents, packaging, etc.). Since the standards in all components in the EU are higher than in Ukraine, the approximation of government will gradually lead to higher prices for goods and services.
Undoubtedly, the introduction of European production standards is simply a affirmative aspect for Ukraine, as it will lead to improved quality of products and services. However, this besides means crucial financial costs for producers: most regulations will require changes in production, re-equipment, and the usage of more costly natural materials or components. This situation will origin a emergence in the price of the product for the end consumer, which can be a crucial burden for citizens during the war and in the post-war period.
European challenges for the agricultural sector
In the same context, an crucial issue is the functioning of the Ukrainian agricultural sector, which is controversial from the position of European integration not only in the EU but besides in Ukraine. The Ukrainian agricultural sector frightens European farmers not only due to its size but besides due to the specificities of its structure. For Ukrainian producers and citizens, the issue of legislative approximation in this area will not be easy.
Regulation changes will lead to the request to rise standards. Ukrainian farmers will gotta control to another production standards, and so allocate crucial financial resources for the re-equipment of production. For tiny businesses, this may become a threat and a substance of endurance due to the deficiency of subsidies and difficulties in accessing exports. average and large businesses, although more capable of restructuring production, face the threat of losing 3rd markets due to a crucial emergence in product prices.
Today, during a full-scale war, the agricultural business is 1 of the main taxpayers and a leader in terms of abroad exchange earnings. That is why the main issue in the negotiation process should be transition periods for the implementation of European regulation of the sector. erstwhile discussing transitional periods, it is highly crucial for the Ukrainian side to convey to its European partners the arguments about the importance of Ukraine’s agricultural sector as an component of global food safety and the country’s safety in general in times of war.
Another issue related to the agricultural sector that may become controversial for citizens is the functioning of the land market. Land improvement in Ukraine has been ongoing almost since independency and is most likely the most mythologized. In 2020, Ukraine lifted the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land and adopted the Law of Ukraine “On the Land Market.” The adoption of this law was not perceived very optimistically by citizens, as almost the full period of land improvement was accompanied by manipulations by certain political forces. The law provided for different stages of beginning the marketplace to individuals and legal entities, as well as beginning the land marketplace to foreigners only after the approval of this issue in a national referendum. As 1 of the main economical freedoms is the free movement of capital, Ukraine will request to resolve the issue of the anticipation of purchasing agricultural land by foreigners, who are citizens of EU associate states, in the course of European integration. This issue may become controversial for Ukrainian citizens in the context of war, a large number of mined areas, and financial competition.
Common agricultural policy in the EU is presently a controversial issue, especially in terms of subsidies and land use. This issue may besides be painful for Ukrainian farmers in the context of environmental standards and Europe’s green course. Utilizing land and leaving any plots uncultivated for climate purposes can be a hard decision for farmers, especially those whose infrastructure has been damaged by the war.
All of these issues require not only the Government’s work on approximating regulation to EU standards but besides ongoing systematic work to rise awareness of Ukrainian producers (including tiny and medium-sized ones) about all components of regulation and EU mechanisms/tools to support them in a competitive market.
Migration issue of the Union
The start of the full-scale invasion prompted Ukrainians to search protection in the EU. As of the end of 2023, there were more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe. The issue of returning Ukrainians after the safety situation stabilizes remains complicated, which raises the issue of human and human capital. 1 of the EU’s freedoms is the free movement of labor, which may provoke fresh waves of migration in the process of Ukraine’s integration into the Union.
In a recent publication, the Belgian think tank Brugel describes the experience of Central and east European countries: the desire of citizens in these countries to gain higher incomes prompted them to emigrate to another EU associate states and led to a crucial decline in population. For example, after joining the EU, the population of Lithuania and Latvia decreased by 20 per cent, and that of Bulgaria and Romania by 10-12 per cent. At the same time, migration took place against the backdrop of a much higher GDP per capita than in Ukraine.
Thus, the presence of close relatives or friends who have emigrated to the EU and stayed there, combined with economical factors, may encourage Ukrainians to decision to the EU more actively. This situation could lead to a crucial labour shortage in Ukraine.
Ukraine needs to make comprehensive solutions to bring Ukrainians back from abroad and prevent mass emigration. These include, of course, democratic reforms, creating conditions for employment and business, and others.
National vs. European sovereignty
The last, but possibly the most controversial issue on the way to full EU membership may be national sovereignty. Joining the EU partially involves the delegation of sovereignty from the country to the Union. By becoming a member, a country undertakes to comply with EU regulations and bring its government into line with them. any issues will require amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, specified as voting rights. Currently, it is impossible to make any changes due to martial law, but it is worth initiating a discussion of future changes.
Is this way to the EU justified?
This list of challenges on Ukraine’s way to the EU is not exhaustive, but the benefits of membership justify the complexity of the path. Ukraine surely needs to build up its European integration infrastructure, proceed reforming institutions, and place peculiar emphasis on communication with all stakeholders. In this process, it is crucial to supply full information on the benefits of approximating government to EU requirements, as well as tools for citizens and businesses that can be utilized to mitigate risks.
At the same time, at the phase of beginning negotiations – that is, right now – Ukraine needs to pay attention to the risks that will arise in the course of fulfilling EU requirements. It needs strategical steps to mitigate risks before they arise. The proactive position and interest of citizens in both the improvement process and the EU integration process will aid the country to do this. And in the future, erstwhile Ukraine becomes a associate of the EU, its economical possible will be able to contribute to the improvement of the European Union itself.
Viktoriia Melnyk is simply a Coordinator of the European Integration Program at the Center of Policy and Legal improvement (a associate organization of the Reanimation Package of Reforms Coalition).
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