The events of fresh weeks show the United States’ desire to change its attitude towards its commitments to allies. It looks like the erstwhile planet order has ended. It was never perfect, but anyway it is over.
In this “new planet without order”, the United States will not defend its European or Asian allies. In this world, there are no alliances and allies, no common obligations, and old treaties can be revised unilaterally. There are only big, strong countries that take what they want and small, weak ones that fall victim to specified policies. At least this is how the fresh American administration sees the world.
The fresh America does not want to be a global policeman and keep order in the world. It will not defend democracy, advance education, make institutions, etc. — it only wants your assets. Ukrainians learned this when, alternatively of a peace agreement, they were offered a predatory deal on minerals and another assets for an amount 5 times greater than the non-refundable American military aid. The fresh America does not believe in alliances and agreements, it believes in the right of the strong in a multipolar world. If you are strong, then do what you want. If you are weak, give distant your “clothes, boots, and motorcycle”, as erstwhile said by the Terminator. The fresh America does not believe in multilateralism, which means it does not request global institutions. As a result, it is possible that in the close future the United States will retreat from NATO (if not formally, then de facto), the planet Trade Organization, and possibly even the United Nations (the applicable bill has already been introduced). Musk will explain this by the request to save American funds from being wasted, and Trump will explain it by the inoperability of institutions. He will be right in this regard, but alternatively of repairing them, he will propose to burn everything to the ground. At the same time, task 2025 will explain it by the fact that if the United States needs to aid someone, it can do this directly, “without unnecessary bureaucrats”.
It is crucial to realize that America’s turnaround is not the whim of individual political leaders. On the contrary, the election of these leaders was the embodiment of a long-term accumulation of social, economic, political and technological trends. Here are any of them:
- Loss of trust and the growth of hatred regarding institutions and the establishment, which appear to be arrogant, corrupt, disconnected from the people, and working against the population’s interests.
- Growing protests against cultural changes brought by the postmodern agenda, with its priorities of political correctness, inclusivity, number rights, “identity politics”, climate change, etc. This causes a feeling that conventional social structures are being undermined.
- Feeling threatened by the force of technological change, the failure of the “American dream” mention point, and social frustration.
- Anti-globalism and the desire to return jobs to the United States in the face of expanding competition from developing countries and a advanced dependence on global suppliers and markets.
- Isolationism and an unwillingness to act as a global defender of values, to spend money on this as well as on global organizations, even though free and safe global trade is the foundation of American prosperity.
- Expansionism in the Western Hemisphere, a conventional feature of American policy, which is presently expressed in claims to Canada, Mexico, Greenland and Panama.
- Hatred of Europe (and Canada), which have managed to accomplish a higher standard of surviving by almost all indicators. There is besides the feeling that everyone else lives at the expense of the US due to unbalanced trade and little defence spending.
- A desire to reset relations with the Russian Federation and usage Moscow against China, which is the main adversary (a “reverse Nixon”, as diplomats call this fantastic and impossible manoeuvre). This is despite the deep and inseparable integration of China and Russia and the many contradictions between America and Russia.
- The increasing influence of large corporations on politics through run financing, lobbying, and influence on policy development.
- Changing attitudes towards discipline and evidence-based methods, reflecting broader cultural ideological shifts and the conflict between technological consensus and alternate views actively promoted in the media.
Since the changes in American policy are caused by long-term, powerful trends, whose influence on voters was embodied in the election of the fresh administration, hopes that it is possible to change their mind, to prove their mistakes, to master an agreement or to wait it all out, are completely futile.
What does the fresh US policy mean for Europe? The safety contract with Europe, the Pax Americana, has ended. Europe as a centre of power is disadvantageous to America. Now it is not an ally (because there are no allies), but an alternate centre of power — and the less centres of power, the better. And here, America’s goals are the same as those of Russia: to divide Europe from America, to break up the European Union, and to have Europe weak, divided, and powerless in the form of separate unprotected markets and possible objects of plunder.
It is inactive unclear how the US administration sees any possible zones of influence in Europe. It is unclear whether the continent will be robbed by both sides, whether Western Europe will be a region of exclusive American interests, and east Europe of Russian interests (as it was during the Cold War), and so on. But the main thing is that they request to weaken and break up the EU, so they openly support Eurosceptics from the far right (and with Russia besides the far left) of the political spectrum.
What does the fresh American policy mean for Ukraine? There will be no more support for Ukraine, as Ukrainian analysts forecasted back in autumn. The American administration has already stopped the supply of previously allocated aid and the exchange of intelligence information (at the time of publication everything was resumed). The shutdown of the Starlink terminals, on which Ukrainian defence communications are based, is only a substance of time. This example of how Americans can behave in a critical situation should scare all US allies around the world.
Ukraine prevents today’s America from reaching 2 crucial strategical goals. First, this is the aim to weaken Europe so that it is defenceless. Second, there is the desire to strengthen Russia to usage it against China (this strategical mistake will be described in the next article). So, Ukraine must be erased — nothing personal, just business.
Ukraine now is yet realizing that its main allies are in Europe. But it is time for Europe to realize that it needs Ukraine as well.
Europe needs Ukraine as a shield. Ukraine has the largest army on the continent. Ukraine has the only army that knows how to deter Russia. Ukraine has the only army that knows how to fight a modern high-tech war, which is very different from erstwhile motorized wars.
Ukraine needs Europe as its rear, as a origin of financial support, weapons, technology, investment, political and moral support. We are doomed to be together.
Europe will not last without Ukraine. Ukraine will not last without Europe. We are in the same boat, we will either sail together or drown together.
Ukraine’s resilience for 3 years bought time for Europe, but the fresh way was not apparent until the arrival of the fresh American administration. Only now, under the influence of the apparent demolition of alliances and promises, is the awakening beginning.
To realize the Ukrainian position, we must start with the fact that Putin is not fighting for territory. Russia has vast territories, undeveloped and neglected. Russia is fighting to destruct Ukrainian statehood and identity, as it did a century ago. For Ukrainians, surrender does not mean saving lives. Rather, it means losing lives, due to the fact that we will see more tragedies like Bucha and Mariupol throughout the country. Those remaining Ukrainian men will then be made to storm Central European capitals under the Russian flag. Surrender is not an option for us, due to the fact that it means not life, but death. So, Ukraine must resist, regardless of who our allies are and who are not.
“All those who request peace from us ignore that the price of our peace will be higher than the price of our war,” said Pavlo Kazarin, a well-known Ukrainian writer and now serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
There is no immediate catastrophe yet. We have the resources for respective months, and we must usage this time as efficiently as possible to prepare ourselves for the next year and beyond.
“I want it request not have happened in my time,” said Frodo. “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see specified times. But that is not for them to decide. All we gotta decide is what to do with the time that is given us”.
Valerii Pekar is simply a president of the board of Decolonization NGO, the author of 4 books, an adjunct prof. at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and Business School of the Ukrainian Catholic University, and a erstwhile associate of the National improvement Council.
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