All Eyes on the Baltic

On the other hand, the Naval Operations Center – Naval Component Command [COM–DKM] has been preparing for a similar role for a couple of years now.

That’s true. In 2021, we led Exercise Solidarna Bellona, in which the Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 1 [SNMCMG1] vessels took part alongside Polish ships. A year later, our experts led the Rekin maneuvers with the participation of ships from Poland and the Baltic States. Finally, last year, we had a chance to prove ourselves in the command post Exercise Steadfast Jupiter organized by the Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum. A significant number of forces was put under our command. I can say without much hesitation that we are almost ready to take command of CTF-Baltic. Almost, because we are still awaiting certification under the guidance of experts from MARCOM [Allied Maritime Command]. It is a structure superior to us, which has been responsible for operations on the Baltic until now. CTF-Baltic has taken over some of its competencies. The idea is to be closer to the area of operation.

Let’s stop for a moment on CTF-Baltic itself. What will be the basis of its operation?

Actually, the future tense should be replaced with the present one, as CTF-Baltic has just been launched. It is currently led by Germans, who have formed the so-called DEUMARFOR. They will perform the duties for four years, after which we will take over the command for another four years. Simultaneously, POLMARFOR, created on the basis of COM-DKM, will begin its operation in Gdynia. What will happen later? For the time being, we don’t know. It’s possible that the Swedish will head the command, but this has not been decided yet. Regardless of the leadership, CTF-Baltic is always a multinational structure. Currently, British and Dutch soldiers are serving in Rostock alongside specialists from the Baltic Sea countries. The Polish Navy is also noticeably present in the command. First and foremost, we have filled the position of deputy commander, assumed by Rear-Admiral Piotr Nieć, a highly experienced officer who has graduated from, among others, the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis. In his career, he has commanded a missile frigate, a squadron of ships and a flotilla. Recently, he has been an expert at the George C. Marshall European Center For Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Apart from him, we have six officers and two non-commissioned officers in Rostock, in departments related to planning and reconnaissance, just to give an example. Obviously, Allies will also be present at CTF-Baltic when Poland takes over command.

What are the tasks of the command?

In peacetime, it mainly engages in building maritime situational awareness in the Baltic. In other words, it is collecting and analyzing various extensive data on the movement of ships, vessels, aircraft, as well as threats. This kind of information is collected by all Baltic states, but compiling it at the level of a single command can provide additional value. We will be able to see and know more, and, if necessary, respond more quickly as an Alliance. Although CTF-Baltic does not have its own ships and aircraft, it can conduct exercises or organize patrols in the most sensitive areas in cooperation with member states. On top of that, the command’s experts are to be involved in planning operations in case of crisis or war. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, NATO has its regional plans in place, but the situation in the area is evolving, so it’s necessary to pay attention to detail and exercise required flexibility. If there is a crisis situation or war breaks out in our region, CTF-Baltic will take command of the forces deployed by individual countries. Everything is stipulated in the classified regional plans, so I can’t talk about the details.

Forming a command especially for the Baltic Sea is another sign that the importance of this body of water is constantly growing.

Without a doubt. The Baltic Sea has always been strategically important. It has been one of the main import and export routes for the states that border it. Recently, however, its significance has been growing rapidly. The outbreak of a full-scale armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine was the impulse that turned the Baltic into a hotspot region, an intersection of political, military and economic influences. The economic aspect is particularly relevant here. For Poland, for example, the sea has fundamental meaning in the process of becoming independent from Russian resources. Hence the speedy development of critical infrastructure. Suffice it to mention: the Baltic Pipe pipeline, through which we are importing gas from Norway, the gas port in Świnoujście, which is currently being enlarged, or the floating LNG terminal on the Gdańsk Bay, which is to be ready by 2028. Owing to these investments, we will be able to secure Poland’s entire demand for gas. Apart from that, there are wind farms soon to be built near our coast, oil rigs, underwater communications cables, and the port in Gdańsk, which is the largest container hub on the Baltic Sea. Only in 2023, it received over 600 ships. To help you grasp the scale, imagine a single container ship. It is 400 m long and 60 m wide, and it takes 23,000 containers on board. If we filled them with shoes only, each Pole would get 10 pairs.

Obviously, the Baltic is important not only for Poland. At any given moment, an average of 2,000 various vessels are present on the Baltic Sea. It is responsible for 15% of the world’s maritime trade. Therefore, even minor disruptions on the shipping routes can entail gigantic loss, and the repercussions can reach far beyond the region of Central and Eastern Europe.

What type of threats do we need to be prepared for?

There is a whole list of them – from vessel collisions, through environmental disasters, to hybrid actions that the adversary may resort to. Recently, we have seen several unprecedented incidents on the Baltic Sea. Among those were the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline or damaging the Balticconnector gas pipeline, and the telecommunications cable between Estonia and Finland. All these incidents were closely monitored and analyzed to prevent any further attempts. For example, as COM–DKM, we are conducting Operation Zatoka. Ships allocated from both flotillas regularly patrol areas designated by us, monitoring ship traffic and critical infrastructure. We are cooperating with the Polish border guards, ships of NATO states, which operate in the Baltic in much higher numbers than just several years ago, we also have round-the-clock contact with our Allies’ maritime operations centers. We have a list of vessels we keep a close eye on, for example some Russian research units. We think they might be used for intelligence purposes, and potentially also for hybrid warfare. It is the possible activities below the threshold of war that pose the greatest challenge for us today.

How do the Russian Navy ships behave in the Baltic?

In fairness, I must admit that their crews do not cross certain boundaries. They usually observe our actions, but try not to escalate tensions. The Air Force seems to be bolder. From time to time we hear, even in the public domain, about pilots who fly near NATO aircraft of ships. Sometimes they demonstrate their armament while doing so. Generally, however, things do not escalate.

Perhaps the Russians are simply afraid of it? After all, when Finland and Sweden joined the Alliance, the Baltic Sea became a bit of an ‘internal lake’ of the Alliance.

I’m not a fan of this name, as it has pejorative connotations. It suggests that the Baltic is a small body of water, which is not true. From the north to the south it stretches for 1,300 km, and from the west to the east for 600 km. Leaving this aspect aside – NATO has a definite advantage over Russia on the Baltic, both in terms of military potential and the location of individual states. However, we should always keep in mind that Russia is not going to disappear. There is ongoing intensive traffic between the ports in the Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad Oblast. Most supplies for this Russian exclave are transported by sea, as there are virtually no better solutions. The Russians will keep a close watch on these routes. They might also initiate many other actions dangerous for the Alliance. That’s why it is so important to have an efficient Navy.

Meanwhile the Polish Navy has been in crisis for years.

It is getting out of it, step by step. We are modernizing mine countermeasures forces, building new reconnaissance ships, and in a few years the Miecznik-class frigates will enter service – we have never had such large and well-equipped vessels before. Of course, there are more needs, including submarines. I hope that we will be able to acquire them in the near future as well. We all know that in order to implement an effective deterrence policy, it is necessary to have well-balanced resources – naval aviation, shore-based missile squadrons, or ships.

Can taking over command on the Baltic Sea become an impulse for the development of the Polish Navy?

I sure hope so. However, I really want to stress that this nomination is not premature. The Polish Navy is taking a well-deserved place. Poland is a large state, one of the largest in the region, we have very experienced seamen and quite substantial forces at sea, and as such we are able to execute all the tasks we are entrusted with. The creation of CTF-Baltic is the beginning of a new, major stage – for us, but also for NATO. The command will certainly make the Baltic Sea a safer place.

Vice-Admiral Krzysztof Jaworski is the Commander of the Maritime Operations Centre – Maritime Component Command in Gdynia.

_________
Translated by Dorota Aszoff