Israel and Hamas began indirect talks in Egypt this week as both sides tentatively agreed to key parts of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan. The negotiations aim to end the war that has lasted over a year following the 7 October attacks.
However, experts have identified five critical gaps that threaten to derail the Egypt-brokered negotiations despite initial progress. These sticking points could undermine what Trump called being "very close to achieving" peace in the Middle East.
Expert concerns over prisoner releases
The release of Palestinian prisoners represents the main obstacle in negotiations, according to Ahron Bregman from King's College London. Israel has provisionally agreed to release 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving long-term sentences.
"The debate will be over who is on the list of 250," Bregman said. "Israel only has around 280 of these prisoners, so there is not a lot of room for manoeuvre." He highlighted that Israel will resist releasing figures like Marwan Barghout, who is serving five life sentences.
"He's a real danger for Israel; he could be a charismatic and effective leader if he is released," Bregman said. "From the Israeli point of view, he is likely to bring all of the factions together, including Hamas."
Yossi Mekelberg from Chatham House noted that releasing serious offenders would expose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) to significant criticism. Yet pressure from Trump may force Israel's hand, with The Week reporting that Trump directly told Netanyahu "He has no choice".
"Trump seems to mean it when he says he wants to bring about peace, and he has the power to do so," Mekelberg said. "There is pressure not just from the US. The conditions in Gaza are hell. There is fatigue in Israel; the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) wants this to end."
Hostage recovery complications
Hamas agreed to release all Israeli hostages, both living and dead, but complex logistical challenges remain. Around 48 hostages remain in Gaza, with approximately 20 believed to be alive from the original 251 taken on 7 October.
Bregman warned that locating bodies trapped under rubble could prove impossible. "Israel has killed many of the people who knew where the bodies are," he said. "I hope I'm wrong, but there may be some bodies which are never found."
Rob Geist Pinfold from King's College London said Netanyahu would be unlikely to accept any deal where some hostages were not released. The exchange process would likely occur in stages, with potential delays at each step undermining trust between the parties.
Disarmament deadlock
Hamas disarmament represents what experts called the "key sticking point" in longer-term negotiations. Trump's plan requires Hamas to be effectively disarmed and Gaza demilitarised, with all military infrastructure destroyed.
Bregman explained that while Israel has already destroyed Hamas's heavy weaponry and controls key border areas, the militant group will likely insist on keeping light weapons. "Hamas will likely insist on keeping light weapons, saying it has the right to protect itself," he said.
Geist Pinfold warned that any remaining Hamas presence would create a "nightmare scenario" for Israel. "For them, having any kind of Hamas presence in Gaza means it's impossible for Israel to say it's won the war," he said.
Political future uncertainty
Trump's blueprint excludes Hamas from any future Palestinian government, proposing instead an interim administration of apolitical Palestinians and international experts. A "Board of Peace" including Trump and former Prime Minister Tony Blair would provide oversight.
Hamas has agreed to hand over Gaza administration to "a Palestinian body of independents" but has not accepted being completely excluded from Palestinian politics. Geist Pinfold suggested Hamas might attempt to copy Hezbollah's model in Lebanon, maintaining indirect influence through supposedly unaffiliated figures.
Statehood recognition disputes
Palestinian statehood remains a fundamental disagreement, with Netanyahu saying Israel will "forcibly resist" recognition efforts. The UK recently joined France and other allies in committing to recognise a Palestinian state, citing Palestinians' "inalienable right to self-determination".
Bregman said formal Palestinian statehood has become significantly more likely since 7 October, with neighbouring countries demanding it and Western commitments unlikely to be reversed. However, Geist Pinfold warned that statehood "was not realistic any time soon" without a credible Palestinian government ready for recognition.
Only The Independent reports that Trump warned Hamas of "complete obliteration" if they reject the peace plan, while the BBC notes that Iran has signaled support for the initiative despite being Hamas's primary sponsor.
Sources used: "The i Paper", "Independent", "BBC", "The Week"
Note: This article has been edited with the help of Artificial Intelligence.
