Czy infrastruktura energetyczna Ukrainy jest gotowa na nadchodzącą zimę?

As the Russians proceed their full-scale invasion of Ukraine, another crisis is afoot. According to respective news outlets, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure may not be ready for the upcoming winter.

In a fresh report, the Royal United Services Institute think tank stated that the Ukrainians are “bracing for [their] hardest winter”. Meanwhile, the Associated Press said that Ukraine will face its “hardest winter due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure”.

There are respective reasons to rise the alarm about the state of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. As Europe approaches the coming winter, Ukraine’s energy sector finds itself at risk. erstwhile Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2024, the Russians captured and controlled the Zaporizhzhia atomic Power Plant (ZNPP), a large energy supplier in Ukraine. Following these events, the Russians shelled the ZNPP. This alarmed the United Nations, the global Atomic Energy Agency, and the atomic Energy Agency.

Furthermore, the Russians have destroyed many thermal power plants across Ukraine. The Russians have besides targeted Ukraine’s hydroelectric capacity. Finally, Russia has launched many strikes on Ukrainian power grids.

This devastation has taken a crucial toll on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If the Ukrainians cannot repair damaged or destroyed energy facilities ahead of the winter, then they will be in a challenging situation.

The Ukrainians have dealt with cold winters even erstwhile the Russians have tampered with Kyiv’s energy and gas supplies. But with the constant shelling of facilities in the country, the Ukrainians have found themselves in a more hard situation.

Since the Russian full-scale invasion, Ukraine has had to conserve energy. There have been reports of blackouts in various regions across the country to conserve heat and electricity. This winter may be more brutal, and residents will request to conserve their energy as it is estimated that blackouts could scope up to 20 hours per day. In another words, the race is on for Ukraine to guarantee that its energy sector is prepared to make it through another harsh winter.

For Ukraine, these energy risks are nothing new. Prior to the full-scale invasion in 2022, the Ukrainians were subjected to Russian attacks on their energy sector. For example, in 2015, the Ukrainians experienced power outages in the dead of winter in December 2015. It was shortly discovered that Russia had launched a cyber-attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Thousands of Ukrainians were temporarily left without power. Then, in 2016, the Russians launched a akin cyber-attack erstwhile they tampered with Kyiv’s energy supplies. Since then, Russian cyber-attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have become common.

These events have helped Ukraine strengthen its energy infrastructure, and the country has enhanced its cyber defences. But these improvements did not stand a chance against Russia’s aerial bombardments. Since 2022, the Ukrainians have worked hard to effort and address the issues caused by Russian rocket strikes, especially during the winter months.

Ukraine previously succeeded during the erstwhile 2 winters, but this time will be different. To date, Russian bombardments have destroyed 60 per cent of Ukraine’s power generation capacity. Furthermore, Ukraine is enduring its worst rolling blackouts since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukrainians are working urgently to address these concerns. 1 option is to rebuild their damaged and destroyed energy facilities. At the same time, others have turned to the option of atomic energy to stabilize the country’s power supply during this critical period.

But there are respective challenges with these approaches. First, Ukraine lacks adequate anti-aircraft systems and ammunition to defend itself against Russian attacks. This leaves its infrastructure exposed and it besides complicates reconstruction efforts. Furthermore, Ukraine is inactive subjected to Russian bombardments. If Ukraine is incapable to defend its energy infrastructure from Moscow’s current and future attacks, then these reconstruction efforts would be meaningless. After all, this infrastructure would only be destroyed again in a Russian attack. The threat of attacks on these rebuilding efforts besides makes it hard for Ukraine to rise money through investments for these reconstruction efforts.

These challenges cannot be ignored. However, the Ukrainians may have options on how to boost their energy-generating capacity ahead of winter. For example, Ukraine could search to enhance its greater power grid interconnectivity. erstwhile the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, “the Ukrainians synchronised their electricity grids with the Continental European Network. This has helped Ukraine ‘stabilise its electricity system’.” It has besides made Ukraine’s energy sector little reliant on Russia. Pursuing another avenues to cut ties with Russian energy while strengthening integration with Europe could be effective.

Second, decentralized energy systems may aid Ukraine’s energy issues. For example, constructing decentralized energy sources would make Ukrainian energy infrastructure little susceptible to Russian attacks. Local municipalities have deployed tiny gas turbines to power homes, hospitals and essential services. While this is simply a temporary solution for Ukraine to prepare for the upcoming winter, the Ukrainians will request to work with energy experts to establish a long-term solution.

In short, Ukraine is racing against time to prepare for a possibly bleak winter. Prioritizing the resilience of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is essential. The Ukrainian government must take actions to guarantee that energy demands are met across the country. This should include hardening critical energy facilities against cyber-attacks and physical threats, as well as developing contingency plans for fast power restoration in the case of disruptions. Addressing these issues will aid the Ukrainians prepare for the upcoming brutal and bleak winter. Otherwise, Ukraine may suffer.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center.

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