Zeszyt 6/2024: Epoka niepewności

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We find ourselves at a pivotal minute with the fresh results of the US presidential election marking Donald Trump’s return to the White House. There is small uncertainty that this shift signals crucial changes ahead, with far-reaching impacts on geopolitics and the political landscape, besides in Central and east Europe. Trump is frequently described as “unpredictable,” especially erstwhile it comes to abroad policy. This unpredictability mirrors the core subject of this issue: uncertainty.

Tony van der Togt opens the issue by examining how Europe might navigate these turbulent times, posing a vital question: “How prepared is Europe to assert its own sovereignty and make independent decisions?” Among the many challenges, the continued uncertainty surrounding Russia’s war in Ukraine looms especially large, with implications that extend far beyond the region. The Trump squad has outlined a plan for ending the war, nevertheless the terms are unclear and Ukraine, as the victim of unprovoked aggression, deserves its interests to be considered in any peace agreement. Author Sofia Oliinyk points out that any negotiations request to respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and foster a just and lasting peace for its people.

Looking further, Moldova’s president Maia Sandu may have secured a second term, yet her push for a referendum on Moldova’s European future faced near-collapse due to intense Russian interference. Meanwhile, in Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream organization retained power amid widespread accusations of vote manipulation and an unfair electoral process. In the Western Balkans, aspirations for EU membership in North Macedonia and Montenegro are now on shaky ground, as political divisions and democratic backsliding pull these nations further from Brussels.

On the cover: We asked our illustrator to interpret the uncertainty of our times for the cover of this issue. The consequence is an homage to Albrecht Dürer’s, The 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse from 1498. Dürer’s first part captures the strength of apocalyptic fear of the 15th century, harkening to the Book of Revelation. While today’s situation may not be so apocalyptic in the literal sense, the cover does reflect the anxiety and fear that is presently felt in the geopolitics of the region and beyond.

CONTENTS

Navigating uncertainty

Europe in the age of uncertainty Tony van der Togt
The uncertain conclusion to Russia’s war in Ukraine Sofia Oliinyk
There will be no peace in Europe with Putin in power A conversation with Borja Lasheras
Is there a future for the east Partnership? Pavel Havlíček
Czechia’s known and unknown Michal Lebduška
North Macedonia’s EU membership drifts further distant Jovan Gjorgovski
In Serbia, a controversial lithium mine task worries the European Union Tatjana Đorđević

Essays and analysis

Why Serbia is simply a country of contradictions Christian Eccher
The story of the Serbian-Russian relationship Natasza Styczyńska
Montenegro’s fight for EU membership amid Serbian revanchism Leon Hartwell
How Russia’s full-scale invasion has accelerated the flooding of Donbas coal mines Stanislav Storozhenko
Moldova’s election and the power play of energy dependency Jakub A. Bartoszewski and Michael M. Richter
Paris Olympics 2024. A “Team Europe” approach Erekle Iantbelidze
Fell without a shot being fired Miron Samkov, Svetlana Sinitsa, Natalia Baranova and Violetta Grishkova

Interviews

From defensive fact-checking to proactive promotion of quality media A conversation with Christophe Leclercq
Revisiting the lessons of the Russo-Georgian War An interview with Heidi Tagliavini

Stories and ideas

Life on the front. surviving and surviving in Russia’s war in east Ukraine Joshua R. Kroeker
Gender stereotypes break down as Ukrainian women step up Isabelle de Pommereau
Romanian community establishes roots in agrarian France Paul Mazet
Hungary makes its mark at the planet Nomad Games Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska

Art, culture and society

How the plight of Russian feminists demonstrates the totalitarian panic of the Russian state Ailbhe Cannon
Repression and resilience. The voice of Belarusian culture Alena Hileuskaya
Repressions, wounds and blood. Anti-regime culture in Belarus Magdalena Lachowicz

History and memory

New documentary features memories of Srebrenica JP O’Malley
The forgotten beginnings of US-China diplomatic relations Konrad Szatters

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