Labour has suffered a dramatic double-digit collapse in public support since winning the general election a year ago, marking the first such decline since John Major's Conservative government in the 1990s. Sir Keir Starmer's party now averages just 24% in polls over the past month, down a staggering 10 points from the 34% recorded in the weeks following their July 2024 victory.
The scale of Labour's polling decline is highly unusual in British politics, with most new governments experiencing only single-digit drops during their first year in office. The last time a governing party saw such a steep fall was between 1992 and 1993, when Major's Tory administration plummeted 12 points from 43% to 31% following their April 1992 election win.
Historic polling comparison reveals severity
Analysis by PA news agency, using archived national poll data and academic election studies, shows that while almost every government of the past four decades has seen support slip in their first year, the drops have typically been much smaller. Tony Blair's Labour government, for example, fell six points during 1997-98, but from the commanding heights of 59% to a still-dominant 53%.
Even Blair's second term saw a larger seven-point drop, but from 49% to 42%, keeping Labour comfortably ahead of rivals. Boris Johnson's Conservative government elected in 2019 also dropped seven points in its first year, sliding from 46% to 39%.
Smaller parties surge as main parties struggle
The current political landscape presents something unprecedented in recent UK politics: both the governing party and main opposition are simultaneously losing support on a massive scale. The Conservatives have slumped from 25% after the 2024 election to just 18% over the past month, creating a vacuum that smaller parties are rapidly filling.
Reform has capitalised most dramatically on this dual decline, surging from third place on 17% to first place on 29% in recent polling. The Liberal Democrats have also gained ground, rising from 12% to 14%, while the Greens have climbed from 6% to 9%.
Starmer's personal ratings hit historic lows
Sir Keir's personal approval ratings paint an even bleaker picture for the Prime Minister, with Ipsos polling showing him recording the worst satisfaction scores of any prime minister roughly 12 months after taking office. The most recent survey from early June found just 19% of adults satisfied with his performance, while 73% expressed dissatisfaction, giving him a net approval score of minus 54.
This represents the lowest score ever recorded by Ipsos for a prime minister at the one-year mark, worse than Gordon Brown's minus 48 in June 2008 and Rishi Sunak's minus 37 in October 2023. By contrast, Blair achieved a positive score of 44 in May 1998, while even Major managed plus 15 in November 1991.
Political volatility signals uncertain future
While opinion polls capture current public mood rather than predict future election outcomes, the unprecedented movement in recent surveys points to a deeply unsettled electorate and volatile political landscape. The simultaneous collapse of both major parties' support represents uncharted territory in modern British politics.
The one exception to the typical first-year decline pattern was Theresa May's Conservative minority government elected in 2017, which actually saw support increase by two points from 40% to 42% over 12 months. However, Sir Keir's current minus 54 approval rating, while historically poor for a first-year leader, has not yet reached the absolute depths achieved by some predecessors, with Thatcher hitting minus 56 in March 1990 and both Major and Sunak reaching minus 59.
(PA) Note: This article has been edited with the help of Artificial Intelligence.
