The UK is set to recognise a Palestinian state on Sunday despite pressure from the United States and families of hostages held by Hamas. Sir Keir Starmer (Labour) is expected to confirm the move after concluding the situation has deteriorated since he urged Israel to change course over the summer.
The UK Government is alarmed at plans to accelerate Israeli settlements in the West Bank, fearing this will eliminate any hope of a two-state solution. Starmer said in July he would recognise Palestine ahead of the UN General Assembly next week if the situation did not improve, and the UK has concluded conditions have worsened significantly.
Government justification for timing
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, who will represent the UK at the UN General Assembly, explained the decision's rationale. "It's important to state that the recognition of a Palestinian state, it is a consequence of the serious expansion that we're seeing in the West Bank, the settler violence that we're seeing in the West Bank and the intention and indications that we're seeing to build, for example, the E1 development that would run a coach and horses through the possibility of a two-state solution," he said.
The Government has sought to stress that recognition is not a reward for Hamas, saying the group can have no role in future Gaza governance. Ministers have stepped up demands for hostage releases and expect to ratchet up sanctions on Hamas in due course.
Gaza humanitarian crisis concerns
Lammy outlined the Government's deep concerns about the ongoing situation in Gaza beyond the hostage issue. "In relation to what is happening in Gaza… we've got to see the hostages out. There can be no place, no place at all for Hamas. The humanitarian situation is just desperate and we have continued to press Israel to deal with the scenes of malnourishment and starvation that we're seeing, to open up more sites to get more aid in to Gaza and we are very concerned about this continued offensive into Gaza City," he said.
US and congressional opposition
The move has drawn criticism from leading US politicians who warn it would empower Hamas and threaten Israel's security. Congressional Republican leaders, including chairwoman Elise Stefanik and Senator Rick Scott, sent a letter to the UK and other key allies condemning the decision.
"This is a reckless policy that undermines prospects for peace," wrote Stefanik and Scott. "It sets the dangerous precedent that violence, not diplomacy, is the most expedient means for terrorist groups like Hamas to achieve their political aims." During his state visit to the UK, US President Donald Trump said he has "a disagreement with the Prime Minister" about recognition.
Hostage families' concerns
A group of families of hostages taken in the October 7 attack warned that recognition could hamper efforts to release their loved ones. In an open letter to Starmer, they said: "Your regrettable announcement of the UK's intention to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly has dramatically complicated efforts to bring home our loved ones."
The families added: "Hamas has already celebrated the UK's decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal. We write to you with a simple plea - do not take this step until our loved ones are home and in our arms." Ilay David, brother of hostage Evyatar David who was seen emaciated in a Hamas video last month, said: "Giving this recognition is like saying to Hamas: 'It is OK, you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields.' This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now."
Domestic political criticism
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage also criticised the decision, calling it a betrayal of Israel. "Hamas and a Palestinian state are inseparable for now. This is typical of Starmer, he can't really decide where he stands," Farage said.
"Whatever the caveats in his statement, this announcement is a surrender to terrorism and a betrayal of Israel," he added.
Sources used: "PA Media" Note: This article has been edited with the help of Artificial Intelligence.
