England's NHS is battling its worst flu outbreak in decades while facing a potential five-day doctors' strike just before Christmas. Average daily flu hospitalizations hit 2,660 patients last week - the highest figure ever recorded for this time of year and a 55% surge from the previous week.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has warned the timing poses a «much different degree of risk» compared to previous walkouts. Hospital bed occupancy stands at 95%, staff sickness is rising, and the mutated H3N2 flu strain is spreading rapidly under warm, wet conditions.
The British Medical Association is now balloting its resident doctor members on a new government offer, with results due Monday - just two days before the planned walkout begins on December 17.
Strike threat during crisis
Resident doctors are threatening industrial action from December 17 to December 22, demanding a 26% pay rise. They argue their pay has fallen 21% in real terms since 2008.
Streeting addressed the Commons with stark warnings about the confluence of crises. «Frontline staff and NHS leaders have done a superb job in managing previous rounds of strike action. In fact, the last round of strike action, we did indeed maintain 95% of planned care,» he said. «However, I've got to be upfront with the shadow health secretary and with the House that there is a much different degree of risk this time.»
He described the situation bluntly: «It is against this backdrop that the BMA is threatening to douse the NHS in petrol, light a match and march its members out on strike.»
Record flu numbers
The flu crisis is unprecedented for this point in the calendar. Current hospitalization numbers are 50% higher than last year and 10 times higher than in 2023.
«Flu season has come earlier, with a sharp rise in cases – the peak still to come – and this year's strain more likely to affect older people more severely,» Streeting told MPs. «Already, the number of patients in hospital in England with flu is the highest on record at this point in the year. It is 50% higher than this time last year, and 10 times higher than in 2023 – 95% of hospital beds are occupied, growing numbers of staff are off sick, and we are already seeing the pressure in our A&E departments.»
Four hospitals in England have declared critical incidents. Some facilities are reintroducing Covid-era measures, with mandatory face masks for staff, patients and visitors.
Government offer
The government's proposal includes 4,000 additional specialty training posts over the next three years, with 1,000 starting in 2026. It also covers exam fees and Royal College membership costs for resident doctors, and promises new legislation to prioritize UK medical graduates for specialty training roles.
Crucially, the offer does not include additional pay. Resident doctors have already received a 28.9% pay increase over the past three years.
Dr Jack Fletcher, chairman of the BMA's resident doctors committee, acknowledged progress on training but said the offer fails to restore pay. «It should not have taken strike action, but make no mistake: it was strike action that got us this far,» he stated.
The BMA refused Streeting's offer to extend the union's strike mandate, allowing them to reschedule the same amount of action in January if members reject the deal. «I honestly cannot think of a single other trade union in this country that would behave this way, I really can't,» Streeting said.
Hospital responses
NHS chiefs are urging the public to take precautions. Daniel Elkeles, chief executive of NHS Providers, told Times Radio: «When you were talking about anything like Covid, I think we need to get back into the habit that if you are coughing and sneezing, but you're not unwell enough to not go to work, then you must wear a mask when you're in public spaces, including on public transport to stop the chances of you giving your virus to somebody else.»
Multiple health boards in south Wales, along with hospitals in Chesterfield, Shrewsbury and Telford, have reintroduced mandatory mask-wearing in key areas.
NHS England confirmed over 17.4 million people have been vaccinated against flu this year, an increase of 170,000 compared to last year. Officials stress there is no national vaccine shortage, though some individual pharmacies report running low on stock.
The BMA's member ballot closes Monday. If members reject the offer and strikes proceed, Streeting has threatened to withdraw the government's proposal entirely.
Note: This article was created with Artificial Intelligence (AI).
