Europe’s €100 Billion New 6th-Gen FCAS Fighter Jet Program Challenges

Even before COVID-19 brought the aviation industry to a standstill, speculations about whether France and Germany could spearhead the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a sixth-generation fighter aircraft that would make the European Defence Sector autonomous by decreasing the continent’s reliance on US-made aircraft, such as the US F-35 Lightning II, were abundant.

After all, FCAS was unveiled at the Paris Air Show in 2019. The price tag of the FCAS: a staggering €100 billion ($117 billion). But this unrealized project might be doomed before its second phase has even begun.

Photo: Tiraden | Wikimedia Commons https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/62/SCAF_ _Le_Bourget_2019.jpg/1024px-SCAF_-_Le_Bourget_2019.jpg

Europe FCAS 6th-Gen Fighter Jet Program

Germany, France, and Spain are set to be at the helm of the development of FCAS. Assisting its fighting capacities will be the drone swarms and digital combat network.

This is one of the reasons why FCAS is conceived as a “system of systems” as it hopes to integrate the Next Generation Fighter (NGF) with unmanned platforms and a secure, AI-driven combat cloud. At its core is the NGF: a stealth-capable jet designed to replace France’s Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon fleets of Germany and Spain.

Accompanying the NGF will be the system’s remote carriers that will carry out reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and strike missions. Together with the NGF, they will connect in real time through a secure, AI-powered Combat Cloud, often called the Air Combat Cloud.

This digital network will allow seamless data sharing across multiple domains: air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace.

FCAS’s stealth performance is designed to go beyond the capabilities of today’s fifth-generation fighters. Its ambitions include:

• Speed: Supersonic and supercruise capability above Mach 2.5
• Extended operational range: 3,500 to 4,000 kilometers
• AI-guided manned and unmanned teaming
• Integration of hypersonic or directed-energy weapons

Airbus has outlined a phased rollout for the program:

• Late 2020s: Situational awareness upgrades
• Early 2030s: Manned-unmanned teaming
• 2035-2037: Full-scale production
• 2040: Full operational capability

A demonstrator flight of the NGF with Remote Carriers, all linked through the combat cloud, is expected in 2028 or 2029. FCAS’s operating system, in unison with the applications, allows its Air Combat Cloud to operate collaboratively, said Ignacio Rosell, an FCAS Combat Cloud Product Solution Lead at Airbus:

According to reports, the jet is expected to include:

FCAS is definitely set to transform Europe’s defense aviation, but First Post reported that “disagreements between industry leaders and budgetary pressures have repeatedly stalled its progress”, and with the projected timeline as above, leaders from Europe are “under growing pressure to resolve disputes and keep FCAS on track for its planned 2040 debut”.

Photo: Tiradem | Wikimedia Commons
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Future_Combat_Air_System_Paris_Air_Show_2015.JPG

Getting deeper into what’s been holding the FCAS back

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) has a strong technological roadmap, but its progress has often been slowed by industrial rivalries and competing national priorities. At the centre of these tensions are the lead contractors:

• Dassault Aviation, representing France
• Airbus, which represents both Germany and Spain.

Through Dassault, Paris argues that its expertise from the Rafale programme, combined with its responsibility for maintaining the country’s nuclear deterrent, justifies a dominant position in FCAS. Germany has strongly pushed back, contending that France’s demands are disproportionate: Paris has sought nearly 80 percent of the workshare.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has underlined the importance of compromise, noting that national interests must be set aside if FCAS is to move forward. Spain has reaffirmed its commitment to the programme and has ruled out the American F-35 as a replacement option, narrowing its focus to upgrading Eurofighters or continuing with FCAS.

Comparison of National Positions on FCAS

Despite these disputes, all three nations acknowledge that the project is strategically indispensable. The stakes are high: failure would not only undermine Europe’s defense ambitions but also risk leaving the continent dependent on foreign-made systems.

Photo: Tiraden | Wikimedia Commons
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FCAS_NGF_mock-up_at_Paris_Air_Show_2019_(2).jpg

The need for the three European nations to come together on the FCAS project

Without FCAS, Europe risks losing aerospace leadership to the powerhouses such as the United States, China, and other nations. Let’s have a look at how the FCAS project stacks against the initiatives of other nations to make their defence aviation more robust:

Global benchmarks in sixth-generation fighter development

Political leaders of Europe are aware of the fact that FCAS might be left behind the others in the race and hope to intervene directly to prevent further delays. This is why the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, have agreed that a joint decision on the way forward will be made by the end of 2025.

Different phases of FCAS

Phases 1A and 1B of FCAS have already been completed. Notably, Spain was left out of phase 1A, which included launching the demonstrator phase. Here are the roles played by different companies in this phase:

In December 2022, an agreement between partners Airbus Defence & Space, Dassault Aviation, Indra, and engine consortium EUMET was signed, and this marked the beginning of phase 1B that cost €3.2 billion ($3.4 billion). When this deal was signed, FlightGlobal reported that “Flight demonstrations of the NGF demonstrator and other FCAS technologies are scheduled to take place from 2028-2029“.

As Phase 2 of the FCAS system was expected to be initiated at the end of the year, there is some worry whether the construction of demonstrator aircraft is going to take place as it was initially scheduled.

Pistorius argues for a rather simple way of getting back on track:

“ Contracts are struck to be adhered to… If there is a wish for changes, then these are only possible after fresh negotiations between the partners…..One thing is clear: This process must not carry on for ages… We need to gain speed now because the project does not allow for any further delays.”

If partners can agree this year, FCAS will advance toward becoming the most ambitious defence project in Europe. If not, continued reliance on foreign systems will become increasingly difficult to avoid.

Photo: Tiraden | Wikimedia Commons
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FCAS_remote_carriers_mock-up_at_Paris_Air_Show_2019.jpg

Will Europe’s ambitious FCAS programme succeed?

The question of whether the disagreements discussed above will ground Europe’s most ambitious fighter jet ever is an open-ended one: Dassault Aviation has developed fighter planes independently, and when the CEO of the company, Eric Trappier, says, “We are fully capable of building the next-generation fighter on our own,” reaching an agreement becomes a bit more difficult.

Dassault is the prime contractor for the NGF, but it only has one-third of the voting power. Airbus, on the other hand, has two-thirds of it. This apparent loggerhead threatens the multi-billion-dollar project to be abandoned.

When FCAS was unveiled in the Paris Air Show of 2019, critics were quick to point out the absence of a major European power- England – in the project. With France’s economy reeling, perhaps the presence of another major European power would have been better?

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