Around three million people in England have had no further health care since being referred to a hospital waiting list, new data suggests. This represents almost half of all patients currently waiting for NHS treatment.
NHS England figures last month estimated 7.36 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of May, relating to just under 6.23 million patients. The analysis from MBI Health suggests almost half of those have been left in limbo without any clinical contact.
"Frontlog" crisis hits NHS patients
Referring to the issue as a "frontlog" that contributes to increasing NHS waiting list times, MBI said the problem "has gone unchallenged for too long". An estimated 2.99 million people are waiting for their first clinical contact after being referred by their GP.
MBI's analysis found that around 70 per cent of referral to treatment pathways fall into the category of being "unseen" since the patient's GP referred them to a specialist. Delays in making a first assessment can lead to late diagnosis, worsening symptoms and pressure on emergency services.
Worst-affected hospital departments revealed
The analysis found that ear, nose and throat (ENT), trauma and orthopaedics, gastroenterology, ophthalmology and gynaecology and obstetrics departments were consistently the specialist departments with the greatest number of patients not seen for the first time. These departments face the biggest backlogs of unseen patients.
As part of the Government's 10-year health plan, the NHS is expected to meet its target of carrying out 92% per cent of routine operations and appointments within 18 weeks by March 2029. This target has not been achieved for almost a decade.
One million already past target
The latest figures show how challenging that target will be given an estimated one million of the three million unseen patients have already gone more than 18 weeks without receiving any care. This represents a significant portion of those trapped in the system.
"If accurate, three million people are trapped in an invisible waiting list crisis, stuck without basic diagnostic tests of first appointments while their conditions worsen," Rachel Power, the chief executive of the Patients Association, told the Guardian. "The scale is staggering, as nearly half of all patients on a waiting list haven't been seen by anyone. That's not a healthcare service; that's a breakdown."
Working-age patients bear heaviest burden
Power added: "These aren't just statistics. They're people checking their phones daily for hospital calls that never come, unable to plan their lives while their symptoms deteriorate."
Last month it was found people of working age are making up a growing proportion of those on the NHS waiting list for treatment in England. Data tables published for the first time by NHS England also show people in the most deprived parts of the country are more likely to wait more than a year to start hospital treatment than those in the least deprived.
Age demographics shift on waiting lists
The figures, analysed by the PA news agency, showed 56.1 per cent of those on the list at the end of June this year were of working age (defined as age 19 to 64), up from 55.8 per cent a year ago and 55.0 per cent in June 2022. At the same time, the proportion of people on the waiting list under the age of 19 has fallen, standing at 10.8 per cent in June this year, down from 11.2 per cent a year earlier and 11.9 per cent in June 2022.
The proportion who are over 65 has remained broadly unchanged at around 33.1 per cent. People of working age are also more likely to have to wait more than a year to start treatment (3.0 per cent of patients in this age group at the end of June) than those over 65 (2.5 per cent).
However, the proportion is the same as those under 19 (also 3.0 per cent).
(PA/London) Note: This article has been edited with the help of Artificial Intelligence.
